TSLA continues its years-long trend of not only defying fundamentals. Here are, off the top of my head, the current, serious risks to Tesla:
- Brand damage done to typical Tesla buyers and in countries that subsidize EVs;
- Downturn in sales in Q1 and likely future continued declines;
- Likely loss of the EV tax credit in the US;
- A likely upcoming recession with (currently) one quarter of negative GDP growth;
- Tariff risks;
- Competition, particularly from Chinese automakers;
- Supply chain risks; and
- Risks to the Tesla business in China as political and tariff fallout as the administration seeks to ratchet up a trade war with China.
Yet Tesla still trades at a P/# of 173.
TSLA is a bet on Elon. That's it. But it won't be because of any fundamental success in the business. It'll be a question of how much looting of government coffers it can do.
Elon has realized he needs to diversify the business, hence the robotaxis. My bet is that will never go GA and likely will kill or seriously wound someone and get sued out of existence.
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