HN Reader

Historically, the euro has generally been a good bit more valuable than the dollar. But in 2022, the dollar was more valuable than the euro at a point. Recently it's been bouncing around at nearly 1 euro=1 dollar.

Then there's the yen. Used to bounce around between 1 dollar = 100~110 yen. Recently reached 1 dollar = 162 yen.

The dollar losing its value is a return to the pre-covid norm. Lots of countries pumped money into the US to make money off skyrocketing stocks and high interest rates, and now they're pulling it back into their countries. It's a high that can't last forever. And if it did last forever, that would not be good for the world as a whole since it would mean every country is supporting the US at the cost of devaluing themselves.

Here's how the US Dollar Index has performed over the last ~30 years. The swing looks pretty typical to me. If it drops another 10% (as the article says Morgan Stanley thinks it might) then I could see this event as an outlier. For now, I find it interesting but not especially concerning. There's pros and cons to having stronger/weaker currency. I think it's probably worse to have a volatile currency than an especially strong or weak one?

Ask yourself, did you panic during these years? Mostly no. These were pretty good years.

Meanwhile the CCP hasn’t unpegged their currency while they are experiencing deflationary price declines.

Yikes

It’s just that countries don’t admit when they are devaluing currency, because devaluing currency could cause a loss in market confidence, devaluing it could cause a tit for tat currency war, or it could result in speculative attacks against the currency.

But just to emphasize my point, the dollars decline is intentional.

I'm afraid we're to live in very interesting times real soon.

Not sure what to keep my retirement fund in if not those though :c

Economists: No, no, no, no...

The People: Genius! Genius! Let's vote him!

Maybe crypto will eventually be useful for trade?