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Degenerates. Gambling on situations like this attracts the worst people in society. It would be no surprise to find these people also deeply into crypto scams or scams that rob the elderly or managing businesses that overcharge poor people because those poor people have no other local options but to use that business.

It technically resolved according to the rules of the market. A lot of traders on Polymarket seem to place bets on what they think is happening on the ground, when its been clear to me a while, that the key to winning is understanding how and when the sources will report the facts. And now I should add "whether".

Wherever there's gambling, there's sharks. If you don't know whether you're a shark or a fish in this pond, then you're a fish.

Related:

America's betting craze has spread to its news networks

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46245843

Looks like "smart contracts" are no match for old fashioned lying/scams.

Not the first sketchy Polymarket resolution. It's also worth noting the rules can change on the fly. Earlier this year ISW changed how they map the war in Ukraine by introducing "Russian infiltration areas" where in the past they would have said "Russian-controlled territory". Polymarket updated the rules to say "Russian infiltration areas" wouldn't count if you are betting on a "Will Russia capture X?" market. Great news if you're betting on Ukraine, not so great if you're betting on Russia.