People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.'

Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their kinds not to do so.

Leetcode is already standard for SWE interviews, but other industries will need to adopt similar tests to verify that an applicant's brain is functioning correctly and that they're capable of doing the job. Maybe a formal confirmation from a psychologist specializing in 'fried brains' will be required.

My prediction: 2026 looks normal.

AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute.

No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still look worse. Tech discourse stays apocalyptic, but balance sheets don't.

If you mute politics and social media noise, 2026 probably looks like one of those years that we later remember as "stable" in retrospect.

Bonus: Bitcoin sees both 50k and 150k.

Previous Years:

- 2025: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490343

- 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115

- 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628

- 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236

- 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068

- 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596

- 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859

- 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988

- 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767

- 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723

- 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370

- 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201

- 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023

- 2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681

- 2009: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=416530

AI will cause the value of knowledge to plummet. This will be felt particularly by universities - graduates will be valued to near zero by business. Elite universities will continue to do well but the value there becomes elitism and social status (this has been apparent for a long while already).

Value of experience will grow - compounding this will be less opportunity for junior people to get that experience so they will be increasingly (and rightly) frustrated.

The opportunities to have a successful career as a salaried employee decline significantly - people are pushed to start small businesses out of necessity - and this barrier is lower due to AI.

A flurry of new dev tooling companies start up re-packaging software development processes and concepts into a more user friendly package that allows software development to go even more mainstream to accommodate this.

YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.

Some people will write 2025 on forms asking for the current year.

- Tech layoffs grow 100% YoY

- Multiple interest rate cuts instead of 1

- News about prosecutions for insider trading on Polymarket.

- Bitcoin will touch a multi-year low. MSTR becomes insolvent.

- Google Gemini will overtake ChatGPT in DAU.

- Software will be more commoditized and the authors’ “taste” will become its primary differentiator.

- Fiserv will increase 50% or more in market cap (I said the same thing last year about PayPal, and I was wrong)

- Warren Buffett will pass away. (I hope I’m wrong) :-(

- Google will drop the price of Gemini Ultra to $125 a month or less, Anthropic and OpenAI will follow suit.

- Logitech will start making a dedicated vibe-coding microphone-whatever that means.

Instead of Predictions I guess I will do Wishlist.

JPEG-XL or AV2 with AVIF. I still dont believe AV2 would be a better technology. But regardless we need something better than JPEG. And WebP wont cut it. Arguably JPEG-XL isn't good enough either but we have to take what we have.

LLEVC + EVCv2, VVCv2, AV2, or H.267 early release. We need better video codec. H.264 High Profile is still 70% of all video usage. May be LLEVC could be a decent alternative if the recent testing showing 60% bitrate reduction were accurate.

Apple please open source your AAC-LC Encoder. It has been 10 years since you last update it and the release before that was 5 years so we are nearly 16 years since you last touched on it.

Battle of OLED and RGB LCD. It has been a long time since display technology was this exciting. We have Tandem WOLED and RGB OLED, battling RGB Mini LED and SQD - Mini LED. Both will drive quality and price improvements.

Safari - Please fix your multi Tab ( 10s to 100s of tabs ) issues. There are too many to even list but just copying 80 of what Firefox is doing is more than enough.

Oracle release ZFS, MySQL, Solaris and dTrace into certain foundation. With their licenses changed to BSD.

Bring back old 1.5mm typing distance keyboard on Laptops.

HyperScale Cloud competition. I still dont understand why all Cloud are so expensive. And dedicated server are not promoted enough.

This is less of a prediction, more of how I see this industry progressing.

I really feel "web dev" is going to get highly commoditized by GenAI, by web dev I mean 99% of building CRUD-adjacent apps, we are already seeing it now with tools like Claude Code etc, this pipeline is just going to get more refined, with tigther testing feedback loops, PR-workflows and a CI/CD deployment pipeline which the GenAI will control. This might be amplified by the fact the sheer amount of tested, high quality there is in the JavaScript-ecosystem for the AI to train on and learn from.

Software engineering in general will tend more systems and embedded software, fields where GenAI can't perform well or can't be trusted to produce good code (I am thinking writing device drivers, or maintainence of legacy C applications) as well as deep research fields. The average software engineering job might be either that of a "technical product manager", or "researcher" or "low-level systems expert"

That's just what I feel. Honestly, I am probably much younger an others on this forum, so I haven't really seen this industry "evolve" this is just how it looks to me now. I believe there was a time in the early 2010s where there was a boom of this "generalist developer" where if you knew your JavaScript-ecosystem (or App Dev ecosystem for that matter) pretty well, you could land a pretty decent job right out of college, or without a college degree at all.

To me, at this stage the world in general needs software engineers who understand the "world" if that makes sense (in terms of physics, mathematics), or who have a really good mental model of computation. Better put, software engineering will become a tool in the larger context of research & development of tech that advance humanity.

The Independent Variation Principle, the unifying software design meta-principle, becomes widely known, recognized and applied across the industry and academic world.

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17677316

Year of the linux desktop

- EVs will be in the Early Majority group, and 2/3 of them will be Chinese. At least 1 in 4 of new cars purchased will be EVs.

- AI will innovate towards visuals, personality, and tool use. AI tool use will start to innovate past just reading docs, maybe into more things like gaming and robotics.

- Some AI products (not necessarily LLMs) will start competing on latency. Notably on voice/calls, but also things like drones, robotics, etc.

Most to least confident:

1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use)

2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/

3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer.

4. Tesla stock has a major correction (>20%) as it becomes increasingly clear that Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, and various Chinese companies are significantly ahead in AV technology. And as it becomes clear that Optimus is a sham.

Significant economic turmoil. Either from private debt or AI finally deflating. Probably due to enough data center projects that won't materialize due to funding getting cut.

There will be a cliff in the number of people in this industry. There will be a bunch of senior people floating around the job market and no more junior talent. There will be fewer new grads and the pipelines will dry up.

If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.

I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch

I’m cautiously optimistic about AI, but less about the hype cycle around it.

AI (especially LLMs) will likely stay top-of-mind in 2026, but I expect costs to drop meaningfully and capabilities to feel more “infrastructure-like” rather than magical. SME Adoption will drive the AI to masses.

If AI doesn’t meet near-term revenue and productivity promises, we may see pressure or stagnation in tech valuations, even as the underlying technology continues to improve. In other words, the market may cool before the tech does.

On the macro side, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more market stability or mild declines, driven by a re-rating of expectations rather than a systemic collapse. Capital might rotate from speculative growth into cash-flow-positive businesses that actually deploy AI profitably.

More broadly, I think 2026 will reward: reliability over flashy innovation in AI , Engineering depth over marketing narratives, Systems thinking over isolated “features”

Less “what’s possible?” and more “what actually works at scale?”

I'm a bit late to the thread, but I'll play the game this year (24.12.2026). I don't want any of these to happen, but unfortunately I think they might:

- US starts a digital services trade war with the EU. It starts out with tariffs on digital services provided to the USA. EU responds in kind. Google Cloud, AWS and Azure lose a lot of clients over this, but they mitigate the damage by restructuring their business to avoid the tariffs. The tariffs don't achieve any policy change in the EU and eventually settle on a tolerable level.

- Significantly more restrictions and tightening on the US Visa Waiver Programme, with a small chance that it is rescinded altogether. VWP beneficiary countries threaten to retaliate in kind, but never do, because US tourism is too valuable.

- China continues to overtake the USA in growth in tech and digital services related exports. FVEY gets very nervous about this, but in practice nothing is done because of strong consumer demand.

- Coreweave faces solvency issues and numerous AI companies fundraising are forced to do their next raise at a down round.

- AI job loss is revealed to not actually be real. The cause of unemployment really is finally realized to be economic uncertainty caused by high inflation, interest rates and international trade policy uncertainty. Potential digital services tariffs and AI boom collapse make the situation much worse.

- Significantly more momentum behind the HIRE Act, with a small chance that it passes. If it does, tech giants close their EU/UK/Canada/Australia offices and move the roles to India.

- Russia / Ukraine "peace deal" is signed, but will be broken by Russia based on some false flag. Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine unfortunately continues, but doesn't progress.

- MAGA aligned actors interfere in the election of another country.

- USA conducts a "special operation" in Venezuela.

- Weaponized AI generated disinformation and fake audio/video/images starts to become more common. A major news story will break based on AI generated disinformation. It will be disproven quickly, but not before it has had a chance to spread.

I predict certain political factions in the US will spend much of 2026 looking for ways to introduce a delay in the 2028 elections, such as pursuing a war so that Congress can postpone elections until they can be held safely. Which has never happened before, but who knows what absurdities will be given the OK these days?

In the software engineering world, in 2026 we saw a wave of code assistant products. In 2026, we will see a wave of designing software architecture products, not just on greenfield projects but also brownfield projects.

- SaaS prices will start dropping.

- Current LLMs being seen more and more like commodities

- We'll start see a LOT more companies making their own LLM

- Capital stops pretending everything is fine & we finally see the stock market reflect what's been slowly bubbling up socially (people 'feeling poorer', trust declining, consumption becoming more cynical)

I predict more layoffs as I unfortunately already did in 2024 [0].

But let's just say you have to prepare for 2030. The future of jobs report 2025 by the WEF is also reporting that 40% of employers are planning to reduce their workforce because of AI by 2030. [1]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490692

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43041311

* Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. It's the perfect vehicle for the US and most investment in EV charging stations will decrease.

* Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles

* Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO

* Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a year. 50/50 chance that it's televised.

* Luigi is also executed

* Seattle causes an international incident with Egypt and Iran when they don't reschedule the Pride Parade to not be on the same day as the world cup game. Trump sends in the troops.

Last year I predicted: People will continue to run websites, and need to know when they're down (god, I hope).

My 2026 prediction is that people will continue running websites and buiding web apps that need monitoring, more than ever before.

We'll hear "emergent" a lot.

Maybe too obvious but more and more interesting new robots will hit the market and robotics as space will become considerably legible.

Probably going to start to understand how different types of models scaled capabilities will play off of each other when architected together (MOE+).

Non-tech people are going to start having the model welfare conversation more generally.

So far.. my track record has not been great, but maybe I was being a little too optimistic as I shuffle various futures in my head so lets start from more likely to more fun:

- Unabated push towards 'Snow Crash' level of extremely localized power structures at the expense of federal government ( think K shaped economy, but for governmental structures ) - Actual further descent into K shaped economy -- that.. I fear.. is a very safe prediction to make now - Midterms will see some localized polically motivated violence ( likely across the spectrum bar some pressura valve release ) - Shadow wars will continue - Bitcoin will crash; monero will replace it as dollar falls - Companies and government will desperately work together to contains severely distributed ASI level entity that exists as hidden braille invisible characters across all known fora - I manage to to move to full WFH - Valve releases HL3 on Frame - Fusion power will get closer by two kiloseconds

I finally get adopted by a nice family of sentient pizzas in 2026.

https://brynet.ca/wallofpizza.html

US tourism continuing to slump, particularly if conflict with Venezuela happens.

More job interviews having a step to prove you can do it without AI, even at roles that expect you to use AI.

OpenAI will be on the front page of Reddit for how bad/annoying its ads are (There was already a popular post about it from someone in a test group).

Dedollarization accelerates.

I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42405149

A driverless car will be involved in a fatal accident

I predict we will be able to use useful enough models on our own consumer machines with decent tokens per second and we will see an open source alternative to Claude Code using this setup, essentially making agentic vibe coding free.

Big mergers in the tech world with excuses including "AI". Hopefully - some reversal of sticking AI to products that don't need it. Even more massive layoffs. And the worst part - still no Half Life 3.

RISC-V based chips enter the high performance market. Everybody is somehow surprised.

I think that food instability will be a serious problem. I don't think that the store shelves will be empty per se, but rather I believe it will be priced so high that people will be starving because they simply can't afford it.

Its already happening but I believe it will accelerate in 2026 especially with the Fed turning the money-printers back on. Inflation is sure to increase :-/

Grow a garden everyone. Just do it.

AI will start to be seen as a 'boomer' and a low-quality term. Manual and human work will become more valued.

Think we'll have the first job niche shock from AI that the wider public notices. A bit like online translation market just vanishing...except big enough for people to go "oh". Probably transport or warehouse related.

US democracy fundamentally breaks (more).

Substantial global turmoil directly resulting from US losing it's way. Will take time for an alternate order establishing itself in that void.

End of the Russian/Ukranian war.

US improves relations with China.

Climate problems are shown to be less serious than previously thought.

The rich get richer, but nobody cares because quality of life is improved for everybody.

AI brings additional leisure time, which results in a worldwide resurgence in bluegrass music as millions take up the guitar, mandolin and violin. The biggest surge is in banjo, though. Billy Strings leaps ahead of Taylor Swift in concert sales.

2026 is really looking up! Happy New year, Hacker News!

My proverbial taxi driver tells me about their DDR5 RAM investment and how we are still early.

Apophis gets closer.

We'll get similar stories than the one told in the movie Her [1]. People will get married to AIs.

[1] https://www.imdb.com/fr/title/tt1798709/

The collective West will continue its negative momentum. People will continue to seek easy solutions to hard challenges and vote accordingly, making things worse. We'll see further fragmentation of the post-WW2 international order. China does not interrupt while others are making mistakes.

The US stock market will see a correction (and possibly a crash) due to it being generally overvalued, LLM advances unproven for most enterprise contexts, and premature investment in infrastructure. Other stock markets will be dragged down because everything is correlated these days.

Building software continues being commoditized, putting downward pressure on salaries. Software quality diminishes due to prioritizing speed and using LLM output.

Billionaires continue taking control of media companies and continuing using them to influence public thought and discourse. Big budget media production companies show no signs of newfound creativity or risk taking and continues producing remakes, sequels and prequels within existing franchises.

Many people have further diminishing mental health due to a severe value crisis and lack of human connection.

The neurological, cardiovascular and long-term consequences of repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections become better known and understood. But nothing is done to prevent further damage.

Physical AI will make subversive discoveries that exceed everyone's expectations - space-time integrated computing, rather than the current three-dimensional spatial computing plus discrete time steps

Still no high-speed rail in the US

My proverbial taxi driver tells me about their DDR5 RAM investment and how we are still early.

AI will get better

Positives:

- Major breakthroughs in robotics research thanks to ultra scalable simulation software and RL

- AI will become even more useful in daily life

- New drug discoveries or successful stage 3 clinical studies related to / similar to GLP-1. Also in longevity research.

- Renewables will get even cheaper

- Creators will thrive with all the new AI tooling

- Government services will become more digital (at least in Germany)

- The war between Ukraine and Russia will end

- Interest rates continue to fall, causing an uptick in housing buildup

- The EU finally takes a harder stance against uncontrolled migration with concrete measures that will bring numbers far down.

Negatives:

- Societal loneliness will continue to accelerate

- People will use their brains even less, thanks to more widespread LLM use

- the Nazi party in Germany will become the majority in two states (but won't be able to govern them)

AI bots post enough content fast enough that the general public learns about the "dead internet" theory.

The Supreme Court rules against Trump in several important cases (tariffs and birthright citizenship, and a couple of others).

Trump threatens to arrest at least one big tech executive.

LLMs continue to improve, but the rate becomes slow enough that most people realize that AGI is not just around the corner.

Household name AI Company will IPO. Existing safety work will further deprioritize in favor of maximizing shareholder value.

The government will start calling 26°C (78°F) ‘Extreme’.

Bad. Bad bad bad.

Another hot war.

Western world will face a new generational war to uphold democracies.

Ai bubble pops and causes turmoil in the economy, software jobs will be back.

I get swole. In bank account and muscles.

LLM progress will platoue.

I suspect that 2026 will be the year we see a big breakthrough in the use of LLM agent systems. I don’t know what that will look like but I suspect the agents will be doing meaningful research (probably on AI).

Engagement bait will get amplified even more, with the goal of gathering human generated data and user retention.

Lots of new subreddits have been popping up this year, in different languages, that are flooded with AI generated rage and engagement bait posts. Facebook is feeding boomers with the same kind of slop.

We will see the repercussions of this on society.

1. There will be an economic meltdown by summer. Similar to 2008, likely worse.

2. Some kind of extreme US constitutional crisis.

3. Putin will remain in power, but Russia will be struggling dramatically to keep funding the war as Ukrainian attacks keep chipping away at oil and gas exports.

4. At least one new major AI breakthrough.

5. Several more countries virtually collapse

Windows market share drops below 90% (On steam) The great recession of 2026/2027 (AI bubble pop) Sam Altman arrested OpenAI sold or split up in some way Bitcoin drops under $50k Ukraine war 'ends' Half Life 3 announcement GTA6 delayed again

[flagged]

The USD will devalue 5-10% further.

Flock and other government tools for watching and controlling you will expand.

Big companies will expand their regulatory capture, especially in medical care. Fingers will continue to be pointed at health insurance as the problem while the real problem of an artificially limited supply of doctors goes unaddressed.

Government agencies will continue their slow bloat as no mechanism exists for government like bankruptcy in the private sector.

Patent trolls will expand their lawsuits and extort more legitimate businesses.

The far left will assassinate more Republican leaders.

More color in clothes fashion

Coding job losses will continue.

Or "what will surely not happen in 2026". HN crowd is atrocious at predicting anything.

life will be worse

Aliens will reveal themselves

Politics

- New major armed conflict starts.

Space

- Artemis II succeeds.

- Starship makes first fully reusable orbital flight.

Other tech

- One of the fusion startups demonstrates net energy.

- AI bubble pops, OpenAI gets acquired by Microsoft.

Musk empire will come crashing down, starting with Tesla.

AI bubble will start to pop (even though the adoption continues to improve slowly).

US / Europe separation will accelerate.

EDIT: For the first 2 - it's the 3rd year I'm thinking it will be 'the' year...

I'll probably get laid off.

- Major disruptions on the financial markets due to the USD losing value. Commodities go up. Not certain about Bitcoin/Crypto as it is backed mostly by the USD itself.

- US goes on the offensive on tokenization moving bonds, stocks, transfers, etc. to the blockchain. China opens up its eCNY to the grand public.

- AI bubble pops. Companies decide that LLM-coding is not worth it after accounting for the downsides. LLMs for generating photos and videos are still not good enough. OpenAI goes the way of pipedpiper.

- The war in Ukraine remains unresolved. Russia advances but only marginally. Europe still shaking its head about what to do. US lower its involvement.

- The US world cup goes very badly. Like embarrassingly bad. Goes okay in Canada and kinda okay in Mexico though.

- China invades Taiwan in the last month of 2026.

Another large profession will be significantly affected by AI in the way graphic designers and copywriters already have.

AI continues to improve - not to AGI levels but claude code level for industries outside of coding/tech.

Elon Musk gets richer

Europe anti-woke grows

There would be very strong emphasis on financial superapps, I saw coffeezilla's recent video about how coinbase is expanding to stocks and other stuff too but they are also expanding to prediction markets themselves which are also eating away at gambling/basically are gambling apps itself

Coffeezilla (and me too right now) basically shout that its like a health app tried to give you junk food off the back alley basically

But I feel like these trends will continue to grow, I was partially interested in stablecoin markets and it seems that apps like paypal,venmo,cash app etc. would essentially just stand back as stablecoin and so there are chances that these financial superapps will do these too in the near future

There would be more emphasis on removing VPN's in countries. I feel like UK (and in extent other countries too) will have some influence on gatekeeping their populations from websites who dont comply to their arbitrary rules and VPN's being the last hope for many, I feel like a real crackdown on it is gonna come in 2026

I feel like centralization and extremism might continue slipping up in 2026 too perhaps. To me I just feel like we see things and this illusion that there are many players in any marketplace but it does feel like they are centralizing (some major tech apps, some major finance apps etc. which will influence a lot of average person's opinion) and we just saw something similar happen to dram prices which i also think wont really reduce even in 2026

I am seeing people fed up with centralization and big tech and more interested in homemade-alike solutions/created by normal people. Projects like clippy and others have made more people aware of such things and I think it will continue in 2026 when more people see this real "AI tax" of increasing prices of hardware

Centralized finance and decentralized finance (although I dont appreciate crypto) feel to me would kinda converge on stablecoins and then merge/already are merging and In my opinion the company with more ties to centralized finance could win. Tech and finance seem to me would have more coupling on a rate similar to 2025.

The AI bubble has chances of popping in 2026 but I am not sure about it but that being said, its a matter of when, not if in my opinion. But if AI bubble does pop, I feel like finance and tech would decouple most likely because it seems to me that if an offer as lucrative as "AGI" for the financial investors failed in their eyes, they would stray away from real tech businesses who make real life problems much easier but wont have the lure/lucrativeness if the bubble pops up

Else, we are gonna see the same thing where people will slap AI over anything to get funding. I do feel like if AI bubble pops then the companies who picked AI hype when there was no need might be shamed for it but It never really happened in the crypto space because those companies went straight to AI after crypto so I think we would need some time in between after AI bursting and another hype to give people some time to think what really happened and the scale of it if it does bursts.

No predictions, only wish next year bad things no so much. And f** u 2025.

maybe finally the US gvt n elites will finally admit the economy is an recession.

not this dress up and cosplaying being done - like the economy is growing - while it's actually shedding jobs, homes ain't selling cz there ain't buyers

Debt and Liquidity Crisis in the Bond Market that spreads to other areas. Probably first signs will be in the Repo market and go from there.

Zelensky will be replaced as Ukraine's leader and Ukraine as a whole will switch back to Russian control, moving the new front line to other former Soviet states and Poland. Also, all of the weapons provided to Ukraine will begin pointing at Europe instead of Russia

China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.

Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia

The GOP will retain control over the House in the upcoming Midterms

A large labor reduction in many high paying jobs, such as tech, due to higher productivity provided by AI. In normal times, this would cause a kind of deflation to balance everything out. Due to the pending economic crisis, the Govt will spend even more money to try to maintain the current system, leading to more inflation.

The cost to service the current debt will be used to justify a large reduction in Federal Govt agencies and services.

The Atlas comet will not be an alien spacecraft

The public will learn more about the extensive surveillance state and be less approving of it.

The Epstein files will be a big nothing burger.

Major “prediction market” scandal

Someone is busted falsifying a race horse’s pedigree to hide use of a cloned sire.

Entropy increases

Putin dies, significant palace intrigue follows, but the war in Ukraine continues on unfortunately.

game over

Bloodbath in midterms!!

Crypto, as an economic and innovation ecosystem, is largely dead, with the partial exception of stablecoins (which are not inherently “crypto” in the ideological/decentralized sense).

The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, their “whale power” is not optional but necessary to survive, creating persistent sell pressure and undermining long-term trust.

Bitcoin likely has a longer lifespan than most alternatives due to its lack of a foundation, fixed monetary policy, and social inertia. Over time, it may absorb whatever residual trust exists in the broader crypto space. However, that does not imply indefinite relevance: Bitcoin could survive while gradually becoming economically marginal, not dead, but increasingly negligible outside niche use cases.

= Generelly speaking:

Chinas market power will continue grow around the globe. There might be some issues with there economy but they will increase exports in all relevant inudstries.

The Solar revolution in Afrika will continue, driven by even cheaper chinese goods. It will be a story around the globe how much Afrika is changing.

CATLs Sodium Batterie will reduce prices of energy stores to a new unexpected low. Cheaper faster than expected driving further some success stories.

Germany (were i'm from) will continue struggling and it will get worse for the automotive sector (especially for the suppliers).

Due to economic issues in germany, the far right nazi party AfD will continue winning a few more % points.

Some car maker will bring a relevant cheap globally available EV car. I suspect BYD, which will increase public awareness of germans automotive sector or automotive around the world. Automotive will start becoming a commodity. Revenue per car will go down.

Climate will see some new record. Either more and stronger storms, more heat or/and more flud rain. We will talk about it temporarily and then continue going back to ignoring it.

= USA vs. the rest of the world:

Stuff will continue as shitty as they are. Companies will not compensate the inflation americans have seen so they continue to struggle.

There will be 2-3 attacks on public figures. If the economy will continue downwoards, potentially also some CEO or very well known Rich Person (Musk, Suckerberg, Bill Gates (after Epstein files), Jeff Bezos)

Epstein files will come out, but due to every public media playing it down and no one caring anymore about it anyway (we all know, he is dead, Maxwell might get out of jail) and it will not lead to a coop. I will learn the full extend of Bill Gates affairs and will strike him from my list of people i thought have a positive story arc.

Republicans will lose Midterms harder than usual/landslide style.

Conflict between Trump and the house and senate then this will lead to either Trump doing more golfing or further sliding of the USA in an authoritarien direction. The only issue here is, Trump is to old and fragile, he couldn't care less about his power because he just does what he wants anything but he can't come up with a more elaborate "USA Trump Corp" strategy to take really over. While in parallel authorian stuff depends on a person and there is no one really there. Vance? No way.

Hey lets bet on Vance and the wife of the Kirk guy coming together and the republicans liking it that much but no i don't think this will play out.

Obama Care's budget cut might be a trigger point for something.

Russia:

Russia will continue influencing US Politics, but economy will continue going down. We are coming to the magic 5 year mark, Ukraines strategy attacking russian oil is working but Russia is Russia, people can suffer there.

Derek Huffman will die.

AI:

AI will continue growing. Progress will still be seen in a lot of different areas. Nvidia will focus on increasing production and will see another Hit with Rubin. We might see some very special new thing. Perhaps material science discovery, mathematics or generall so much better LLMs.

It will continue affecting jobs around the world. Especially in fields were GenAI is already really good. Arts. There will be more AI music on Radio and in the Top Charts. GenAI for images will continue reducing jobs for 2d and 3d, advertising, texting, translations.

Robots will continue progress and impress us.

Luigi:

He will get lifelong prison sentence :(

Musk:

SpaceX will be a successful launch, while Tesla struggles in car sales, he will continue hyping and overshadowed through SpaceX, Tesla will not fall yet. The Selfdriving thing will kill someone, his robot will not be ready.

GTA 6 will be out and it will be awesome!